Pent-Up Demand or Mini Housing Bubble

Homes Sales Up Nationally – What’s Going On?

House and Money ImageHome sales and prices are up nationally. The increase is taking up back to 2005 pricing levels. I’ve seen some news where the issue of a new bubble in home sales and prices is being talked about, but I don’t think this is what’s happening.

The bubble that burst in 2006 was fueled by speculators with access to easy money. Lenders were giving stated income mortgages to people who were simply not going to be able to pay them back. These speculative buyers could only survive if prices continued to rise. They didn’t and the wave of mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and falling prices began.

We know that the latest price and volume increases are not fueled by easy money. Mortgage money is tight. Many of the REO to Rent investors are using cash, not borrowed money. Further getting back to 2005 prices is about where we should be without the crazing price increases during the bubble.

I just read an article over at AG Beat that gives the latest housing numbers and projections. These numbers are from pent-up demand that we’ve been expecting might happen for some time. Many buyers were waiting to see price increases before they bought. Now they’re seeing price increases accelerating and they’re jumping in. It’s normal market behavior. Be careful of news reports and current numbers. Watch the market over quarters and years and you’ll get a better idea of what is really happening.

Prices are rising in Daytona Beach and surrounding areas. You can check all area listings without registration at search Daytona Beach homes.

Daytona Beach Homes Sales Up 33.4% – 1st Half 2010

580 More Daytona Beach Homes and Condos Sold in 2010 First Half

Sales of Daytona Beach area real estate are up 33.4% in the first half 2010 compared to 2009 and 62.3% over the first half of 2008.

Here is the breakdown of the first half sales for the last three years:

  • 2010 – 2316 homes and condos sold
  • 2009 – 1736 sold
  • 2009 – 1427 sold

Numbers tell a little of the story, but the picture below shows the progression visually.

It’s obvious that the market has improved significantly over the past two years. Each month in 2010 has shown an increase in sales from the month before. Sales in June were 481 condos and homes sold.

The market is much stronger in the lower price ranges and that where about 90% of all sales are taking place. Homes and condos under $200,000 made up 74% of sales in June and sales under $300,000 made up 88.1% of all sales. Check out the June 2010 Daytona Beach homes sale report.

Contact Lynn at 386-566-7503 for more information or to discuss the current market and your options.

September 2009 Sales of Daytona Beach Homes Up 58.7%

Sales of Daytona Beach Homes Up 58.7%

Sales of Daytona Beach homes and condos in September were up 58.7% over last September. Needless to say that’s is a huge increase.

Sales under $200,000 accounted for 72.4% of all sales and sales under $300,000 accounted of 88.6%. No homes were sold over $1,000,000. The 370 homes and condos sold in September fell just short of July’s sales of 375 properties that was the highest in over three years.

Month to month, September sales were 10.4% higher than the 335 sales recorded in August.

What Do The Sales Numbers Say?

The numbers tell us one simple thing about the Daytona Beach real estate market – more people believe that homes and condos are at price right. The numbers don’t tell us anything about reaching a price bottom or whether prices will go up or down. It was recently reported in USA Today that people are finding bargains in the Daytona Beach area and that’s true. It’s hard to believe some of the deals we’re seeing.

Is Now The Right Time to Buy?

Buying or investing in a home is a decision that only you can make. There are no guarantees, but patient buyers will find great deals. Foreclosures and short sales are keeping prices down, but eventually that will runs its course and pressure will begin to mount for prices to rise again. If you are ready to explore the market and discuss options, give me a call at 386-566-7503.

Reported sales are from the Daytona Beach MLS.

July 2009 Daytona Beach Home Sales Best in Years

Daytona Beach Homes Sales Up 25.2% in July

377 Daytona Beach Homes and Condos were sold through the Daytona Beach MLS in July 2009. That’s 76 more than last July and the highest sales level since June 2006 when 401 properties sold.

What July Home Sales in Daytona Beach Tell Us

Simply – higher sales tell us that more people believe that housing in the Daytona Beach area is priced right. It doesn’t mean that home prices have stopped declining, it means that more people believe that they are near bottom. A lot people are on the sidelines speculating what’s going to happen with prices. These folks are voting with their wallets.

I’m very busy and I’m selling properties. It’s interesting to note the difference between buyers now and in June 2006. That was just at the end of the bubble. At the height of the bubble, buyers were in a frenzy – concerned that if they didn’t buy now, they would lose out.

Buyers now are different. They are generally very savvy and conservative. They are selective. They can afford to be. There are over 5500 homes and condos on the Daytona Beach market through the MLS. They also have the means to buy a home – cash or a financial position to get a mortgage. There is no frenzy – it’s measured, intelligent buying and investing.

What’s Selling?

Sales by price are following the same pattern we’ve seen for almost two years now.

Under $100,000 = 119 (31.6%)

$100,000-$200,000 = 164 (43.5%)

$200,000-$300,000 = 57 (15.1%)

$300,000-$500,000 = 30 (8%)

Above $500,000 = 7 (1.9%)

Sales below $200,000 dominate the market. What can you get for under $200,000. The choices are tremendous. Condos, Homes, Duplexes, Beachside, Mainland, Gated Communites, Golf Course Communities and more. You can go here to search Daytona Beach homes and condos and see what’s available. Better yet, call me at 386-566-7503 and I run a customized search based on your criteria. I have a knack for finding people just what they’re looking for.

To get a quick read on Daytona Beach homes for the first half of the year, check out First Half 2009 Daytona Beach Home Sales Up.

Daytona Beach Condo Sales Up for March 2009

Daytona Beach Condo Sales Up Slightly in March

Sales of Daytona Beach Condos were up from 54 units in February to 61 units in March.  Total home and condos sales recorded in the Daytona Beach MLS were 288 properties, up from 249 properties in February.

A recent rule of thumb is that one condo will sell for every four houses sold. That’s pretty close to what we saw in March with condos accounting for 21.2% of sales.

Sales in the $200,000 to $400,000 price range were up significantly. In March 20 condos were sold in that price range, while 21 were sold in January and February combined. This figure bears watching, as it is the highest number of sales in this price range since July of last year. One month doesn’t make a trend, but there are tremendous bargains in this price range and people may be beginning to take advantage of them.

Visit the Daytona Beach Condos Monthly Sale Report for complete information on condo sales going back to the beginning of 2008.

March 2009 Daytona Beach Real Estate Up 31.5%

Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales March 2009

Preliminary Report

Daytona Beach real estate sales were up 31.5% in March 2009 over March of the previous year. Preliminary numbers show Daytona Beach MLS sales at 288 homes and condos vs. 219 properties sold last year.

Trends Remain the Same

Sales by price did not change from previous months:

  • Under $100,000 – 33.3% (96)
  • $100,000 to $200,000 – 42.4% (122)
  • $200,000 to $300,000 – 14.6% (42)
  • Over $300,000 – 9.7% (28)

These are preliminary numbers, but they won’t change signficantly. The average home price sold was $159,815 and the median price was $133,500. In February we saw average sold price of $166,845 and a median price of $127,500. Median means one-half of properties sold under the median and one-half above.

Year to Date Sales Up 23%

Sales of Daytona Beach homes and condos are up year to date over 2008 by 140 properties or 23%. Year to date 748 homes and condos sold vs. 608 for the same period last year.

This is all positive news for the Daytona Beach market. Months of inventory has decreased to just over 19 months. At the end of December, we were at 25 months. That’s a significant drop, but still far away from a stable market.

Interest rates are low, there’s an $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers, and prices have dropped. How long interest rates and prices will remain low is uncertain, and the tax credit expires on December 1. There are even Ormond Beach Condos for sale under $100,000. It looks like we are in window of great opportunity that we may not see again for a long time. If you are interested in homes in our area, call me at 386-566-7503 to discuss your options.

A Sensible Voice on the State of the Economy

A Voice of Calm and Reason Among the Panicked Pundits

Once in a while, in the midst of panic and confusion, a calm voice can be heard – if you listen carefully.

Nearly all the content on this blog is original, but sometimes I run across great articles from other sites that I believe provide valuable to my clients and readers.

Nearly everyone is concerned about the economic recession, how it will affect us personally, and how long it will last. Of course, the Daytona Beach homes market has been in recession for a few years and me and my readers are sure interested in answers to our questions.

Anthony Karydakis, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, published an article on Fortune’s web site titled, How long will the recession last? If you like shouting, pessimism, and unsubstantiated opinion, click away right now, BUT, if you are interested in reading an articulate, sensible, evidence-based analysis, read Professor Karydakis’ article.

I came away from the article with a changed perspective. I was reminded that we experience periodic recessions and that they generally don’t last that long (about 10.4 months since WWII according to the article). I was also reminded that there are cycles to every aspect of our economic lives. Yes, the Daytona Beach real estate market will recover and begin growing – eventually.

Professor Karydakis doesn’t gloss over the severity of the recession we are in right now, but he adds sensible points like when he talks about the “deepest recession in decades”:

“The most intuitive, and legitimate, reference is the 1981-82 recession, which lasted a longer-than-average 16 months and led to a peak of 10.8% in the unemployment rate – by all standards, a pretty serious affair. Still, it would take an extraordinary amount of additional severe damage to today’s economy over a fairly long period to drive the unemployment rate from its current 6.5% to double-digit territory.”

So, what’s his prediction?

“How long will this one last? The prevailing view: probably through the middle of 2009.”

There you have it, but I encourage you to read the article. It’s a short read, but very informative.

Sales of Daytona Beach Homes Decline in November 2008

Daytona Beach Homes Sales Fall 11.6%

The preliminary numbers are in and sales have fallen again. In October 225 homes and condos in Daytona Beach were sold. In November, 198 home sales have been recorded to date. These are preliminary numbers because a few more sales will be added by Daytona Beach real estate agents over the next few days.

The fall is expected based on seasonal affects (209 homes sold in November of last year) and the lack of mortgage money and the lack of economic confidence.

The trend of homes under $200,000 is accelerating with 71.2% of sales recorded in that price range. Over 90% of Daytona Beach homes sold were sold under $300,000. Only 19 homes sold above $300,000. The top end of the market is nearly dead.

The top market should be boosted when FHA limits rise in January, but we’ll see. Right now it’s dismal for high end properties.

Properties under $200,000 remain stronger, but there was a 9% decline in those numbers in October. Where the market goes from here is based on mortgage money becoming available and buyer’s confidence. Until we have money available from lenders and buyers more willing to buy, we will be in the lower ranges of the market.

The prices we are seeing are based on short sale and foreclosure prices. Until those properties are worked out of the market, “normal” prices will not return. That is going to take a few years. It is a stronger and stronger buyer’s market and the deals are amazing for those who are willing to accept the risk.

In the long term the supply of distressed properties will decline and prices will rebound. People buying now might realize gains of 30-40% within 5-7 years. That’s a pretty good return.

The market is changing fast and if you’re interested in distressed properties we should talk. Nearly all of my sales are now associated with distressed homes and condos and I know the ins and outs of the process. Call me at 386-566-7503 or 888-519-9579 to learn more.

October 2008 Daytona Beach Homes Monthly Sales Video Report

Daytona Beach Homes Monthly Video Market Report

We just completed the monthly video on Daytona Beach real estate sales and market conditions. In the video, we cover sales numbers with breakdowns by prices sold and by month, median prices, average prices and much more for homes and condos. This is our third monthly report and we will publish the report for November about this time next month. Find out what’s hot in the market and what’s not. Enjoy.

You can find a text version of this report at Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales October Report.

We also publish weekly reports and long term trends. You can find these reports at Daytona Beach Real Estate Market Reports.

If you have any questions, call Lynn at 386-566-7503 or 888-519-9579.

Daytona Beach Home Sales Drop 7.4% in August

Home Sales in Daytona Beach Drop 12.7% 7.4% in August

Note: Updated 9/3/08 – The initial figures were taken at a time when all entries are usually complete in the system, we have updated the totals based on late entries into the MLS, but it’s good that another 16 properties were added.

Sales dropped in August for Daytona Beach real estate from 299 properties in July to 261 277 properties in August. Wait. There’s no need to panic. Take a look at the 2008 sales graph to put things into perspective.

From the graph we can see that July sales are in a range or band that began in April. April was the first month were sales jumped over 250 properties since August of 2007. April sales established a new level of sales for the Daytona Beach MLS and we’ve held or exceeded that level since then.

The graph is useful for prespective, but also as a new indicator of where the market is going. If sales drop below the 250 level, we consider that a negative sign. If sales break through the 300 level, that will be a very positive sign. So based on the sale data for April through August, the stable range for the current Daytona Beach real estate market appears to be between 250 and 300 sales.

The sales breakdown was 54 condos, 9 condotels, and 214 houses. These ratios are pretty close to normal with condos being 18.5% of all sales. Condo sales for the year are 18.6% of all sale. We’ve seen some big fluctuations, but condo sale are close to the historic level of about 20-21%.

I believe these sales levels will hold going forward. I am busy with buyers, showing them condos and homes in Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach and Port Orange on an almost daily basis. I’ve written quite a few contracts over the past two weeks. It encouraging that our market is staying pretty stable in the midst  of bad economic news and high gas and food prices.