What is the New Normal Sales Level for Daytona Beach Real Estate

We just finished analyzing last weeks Daytona Beach Real Estate sales data to complete the weekly Daytona Beach Real Estate market report. Sale for this month are a little ahead of last month at 210 vs. 202. Last months total sale were 277, so we may beat that number this month.

So, let’s say that we achieve a rate of 280 sale a month and stay there. That would put us at an annualized rate of 3360 homes per year. That rate is way below the rate of the peak year of 2005 when 6141 homes and condos were sold, but it’s higher than last year and very close to 1999 and 2000 (3796 and 3691). See all historic Daytona Beach Homes sales for sales information from 1999 to present.

What is the new “normal” level for Daytona Beach real estate sales? If I had to pick a number, I would say 4400 sales per year, or, a monthly rate of 367 homes and condos per month. How I get there? I looked backed to before the easy money and speculation hit the market and jumped home prices up 17%. That was 2002 and 4035 total condos and homes were sold that year. I added 10% to that number to account for growth in the area and get 4400. Not very scientific, but it seems to make sense. The number will vary from year to year, but that’s the number I’m targeting in my planning for meeting the needs of home buyers and sellers in the area.

So Daytona Beach Home sales were at 277 for April which is 75% of my normal level of 367. I believe that’s about where we will be when the dust settles from the storm of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and speculation. We will not be in the 5000-6000 ranges of 2003 to 2005 because those sales were artificially boosted. At least until the next speculative run-up. History does have a way of repeating.

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