Federal Reserve Chairman Predicts Home Sales Spike

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Talks About Home Sales

Kenneth Harvey at Realty Times reports on a speech that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave in New York a couple of weeks ago. Mr. Bernanke said, “Housing in the coming year is going to be a relative bright spot – a helpful driver of national economic growth, rather than the wet blanket it’s been for the past couple of years.”

Can you believe it. Housing that has been a weight around the neck of the economy, could actually stimulate the economy next year.

Mr. Harvey also reports:

Fannie Mae issued its projections for the coming year — and predicted that housing sales will jump by 11 percent — even in the face of a slow recovery for the economy as a whole.

A few days ago, unemployment figures were reported down for the week. Now one week doesn’t make a trend, but it makes for a lot of talk in the media. Maybe it’s an anomaly, but maybe it’s the beginning of the end of this economic recession that we’ve all been living through.

We seen housing prices begin to stabilize over the past few months with prices in Miami actually up slightly.

What’s it all mean?

I’m not going to predict exactly when we will see a turn around in the economy and improved home sales. I look at it a little differently. The economy will turn around and home sales will rebound to traditional levels. It’s coming, but we won’t know when until it has actually happened. Recessions are like that. The end is called months after it actually happens.

Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales

Now Daytona Beach real estate sales have reached the level of about where they were before the run up to the housing bubble started. In the year 2000, 3671 properties were sold through the Daytona Beach MLS. Last year 2900 were sold and in 2007, 3047 were sold. As of today, 3617 homes and condos have been sold in 2009. A 10-11% increase next year is where we would likely have been without the bubble. In other words, based on year 2000 sales figures, we could expect to be at about 4000-4200 property sales through the Daytona Beach board. Not exact science, but the point is, we are probably approaching a sales level that will be pretty stable in the years to come.

We still have tons of inventory with 5375 residential properties for sale, but at November’s sales rate of 404 properties sold, that’s only 13.3 months, down from 29 months at the end of last year.

So, in Daytona Beach, if the current trend continues, and that’s a big if, we are quickly approaching a stable market. A stable market, or balanced market, means that buyer’s advantage will be less and there will be a lot of competition for well-priced properties. We are seeing that now with ocean front condos and some homes under $200,000.

Is it Time to Act?

If it’s not, it’s getting closer. The window is not closed, but it may very well be closing. Keep an eye on all the market news. Where? Well, here of course.

Comments

  1. It is crazy to hear the phrase ‘stable market’. The real estate market is determined by supply and demand. I think what is needed is merely more transparency than ever before. At GoHoming.com (http:www.gohoming.com) the ability to view buyer’s bids on REO homes creates more market efficiency.
    GH

  2. I don’t thinks it’s crazy at all to describe a market as stable. Supply and demand contribute to determining markets, but supply and demand change with other factors such as price, mortgage availability and economic conditions. When price is uncertain, demand is more volatile than when it is reasonably certain.

    When I speak of an approaching stable market, I mean that prices are relatively stable and we can expect a certain level of sales based on prices remaining with that range.

    Regards,

    Lynn

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